25.07.2013 First real quarterly growth of property prices in Bulgaria since the beginning of the crisis
Polina Stoykova MRICS, Chief Operations Manager and Head of Research
BULGARIAN PROPERTIES based on the data from the National Statistics Institute (NSI) about the prices of the apartments in the regional cities in Bulgaria in the second quarter of 2013, the property prices in the country have registered the first real quarterly growth (after deduction of inflation, calculated with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, HICP) since the beginning of the crisis.
Deduction of inflation from the property prices provides a more accurate estimation of the actual change, so when using the NSI data we always do the necessary calculations to obtain a more precise market picture. From the latest data we can see that the property market in Bulgaria has reached a state in which nominal prices remain unchanged, and after inflation deduction, they seem to have started to register small postive changes.
The real change in average apartment prices in 2Q is +0.74% compared to the previous quarter and -3.18% year-on-year (compared to the same quarter in 2012).
Nominally, property prices remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter - a nominal decline of -0.06% on average for the country. On a yearly basis (compared to the second quarter of 2012) the prices of apartments in Bulgaria have dropped by -2.15%.
The average price of an apartment in the regional cities in Bulgaria over the past quarter is 442.94 EUR/sq.m. (unchanged compared to the previous quarter when it was 443 EUR/sq.m.). The prices in the capital of Sofia are still the highest in the country.
The prices at which apartments in the big cities were sold in April-June are as follows:
• Sofia – 734 Euro/sq.m.
• Varna – 714 Euro/sq.m.
• Plovdiv – 472 Euro/sq.m.
• Bourgas – 572 Euro/sq.m.
• Stara Zagora – 447 Euro/sq.m.
• Rousse – 449 Euro/sq.m.
• Veliko Тarnovo – 365 Euro/sq.m.
In 2Q 2013 prices of apartments in Sofia have increased nominally by +0.9% compared to the previous quarter, and on an annual base there is a drop of -1.52%. After inflation deduction the prices of apartments in Sofia have risen by +1.71% compared to the previous quarter, and compared to the same period of last year there is a decrease of -2.56%.
Apart from Sofia, the prices in Plovdiv have registered positive changes on a quarterly basis. This is not by accident as exactly in these two cities was registered the highest growth in interest and in the number of property transactions this year, according to the data from the Bulgarian Registry Agency.
The NSI figures also confirm our data announced earlier in the analysis of BULGARIAN PROPERTIES for the second quarter of 2013, which shows a suspension of price falls in Sofia, reaching of a market equilibrium and an existence of positive trends in result of the return of the local buyers to the market and the increased number of deals. These trends are also observed in BULGARIAN PROPERTIES monthly price indices (BPI) based on listing prices.
The accumulated nominal price drop of prices of apartments in the regional cities in the last few years since the beginning of the crisis is -38.92%. In Sofia the accumulated drop is -41.90%. The accumulated real decrease in prices (after inflation deduction) since the beginning of the crisis is -44.68% on average for the country and -47.38% in Sofia.
The detailed data for of the changes in apartment prices in the big cities around the country in 2Q 2013 is as follows:
Nominal and real change of prices compared to the previous quarter:
• Sofia – nominal growth (+0.9%) and real growth (+1.71%)
• Varna – nominal growth (-0.98%) and real growth (-0.19%)
• Plovdiv – nominal growth (+0.33%) and real growth (+1.13%)
• Bourgas – nominal growth (-1%) and real growth (-0.21%)
• Stara Zagora – nominal growth (+0.29%) and real growth (+1.09%)
• Rousse – nominal growth (-0.73%) and real growth (+0.06%)
• Veliko Tarnovo – nominal growth (-0.17%) and real growth (+0.62%)
Nominal and real change of prices compared to the same quarter of the previous year
• Sofia – nominal growth (-1.52%) and real growth (-2.56%)
• Varna – nominal growth (-2.32%) and real growth (-3.35%)
• Plovdiv – nominal growth (-2.98%) and real growth (-4%)
• Bourgas – nominal growth (-2.85%) and real growth (-3.87%)
• Stara Zagora – nominal growth (-1.47%) and real growth (-2.50%)
• Rousse – nominal growth (+0.96%) and real growth (-0.10%)
• Veliko Tarnovo – nominal growth (+0.18%) and real growth (-0.87%)
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